What's To Be Done?

Mankind has a genius for solving problems. Of course there are some conditions that have to be met if a problem is to be solved – two more than any others. The first is that the problem must be recognized as one for which it is reasonable to seek a solution. The problem itself must be formulated and understood. Second is the existence of tools that can be used to so. Without them it is not reasonable to seek a problem's solution.

The tools must be of two kinds. One kind – the obvious one – relates to the physical tools that allow us to construct the solution: you can't build a better automobile unless certain instruments are available to do so. More important, however, is knowledge of a more theoretical nature – one that makes a solution imaginable and designable. Unless we believe that a solution is feasible, we'll never solve the problem. And that's probably the most important element in problem-solving – the one that most limits us. Once we accept the idea that a problem should, and can be solved, we'll find a way to solve it. And if particular tools – tools not yet available – are needed, we'll fabricate them.

I don't mean to suggest that animals can't recognize and solve problems, or even use tools (as Aesop wrote, crows, for example, will drop pebbles into a class of water until its level is high enough for them to reach and drink), but the problems are few and the solutions are limited. The human, however, is better equipped to analyze and solve more complex problems; given the challenge, and the belief that it can be done, he will build a better mousetrap. And the idea Chester Gould had (in 1946) for Dick Tracy, a wrist radio, has reached fulfillment with today's “smart phones” and “smart watches.” How did our ancestors ever live without it? And how did we, in our childhood, survive without some of the products available now?

Sometimes, however, the problems aren't real. Sometimes an ambitious entrepreneur will create a problem that never existed because he can provide a “solution” for it. And with the help of avaricious advertisers he can convince consumers that his product is worth their money. He has created a “need” which doesn't exist, but for which he can offer a solution. Existing products are inadequate to the seriousness of the situation. We're fortunate that his secret ingredient was perfectly designed to solve the problem we didn't even recognize until he told us about it.

There are many good examples of this phenomenon, but none is as good as the cosmetics industry that parades an endless line of products which, they claim, are perfect solutions to one imagined malady or another. Usually the improvement over previous panaceas is the substitution of one vegetable for another in the magic cream they market. (Veganism wins again.)

And the pharmaceutical industry and its advertisers demonstrate another variant on the theme of a superior product. That's what advertisers do: they convince us that their variation on the theme is far better than anything existing. (Advertisers make a good living by persuading us that there actually would be an advantage to purchasing what their employer is selling. Truth is irrelevant.) In the case of drugs, however, it may be necessary for you to demand that your physician prescribe their product irrespective of the price and the existence of other alternatives.

Another risk of “advancement” is that too often the “cure” is worse than the “disease.” A medication with disabling side-effects may make a fortune for the manufacturer while harming the consumer. Or, if a recall is necessary, it may harm both of them. Similarly the subjects of (often unjustified) lawsuits that bankrupt manufacturers believed by consumers and their lawyers, to have “deep pockets.”

Nonetheless, “progress is our most important product.” And there are many ideas and products that actually improve our lives. Successful entrepreneurs develop them, and help both us and themselves in the process. “American ingenuity” has been credited with contributing to our success as a world leader in many fields. Israel has gotten a reputation as a “start-up nation” for all the new ideas and industries it has originated. (It is sometimes difficult, however, to see it as a nation other than one with which others want to start up.) That's how humanity moves forward.

It takes ideas, money, and nerve to advance us in the commercial (and political) world. Fortunately, Mankind has members who possess these qualities or can determine methods of gaining them. We have a genius for solving problems – far more than simply dropping pebbles in a glass to raise the water level.




October 13, 2016

Complex Problems

                                                                                            

H. L. Mencken, perhaps the wittiest and sharpest of American journalists of the twentieth century, was also among our most profound political thinkers. One of his very best aphorisms, one cherished by progressives the world around, was an evaluation of the thinking of some with whose opinions he disagreed. He said: “For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong.”

Short, to the point, and devastating.

But “every” is a strong word. And in this instance it was probably an unwise choice. Unfortunately there are too many among us who view every problem as complexⁱ and, thus, demand a complex solution, since a simple one would be wrong.

Their understanding of the principle, then, can best be stated as “For every problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong.” From their perspective, no question has a simple and straightforward answer or interpretation. And there is certainly no clear answer to any subject at issue.

What about the converse?ⁱⁱ “For every problem there is an answer that is unclear, complex, and right.” Among the “too many among us” whom I cited earlier, this formulation would obviously include all problems, since they know that when we were calling complex problems “simple,” we were wrong. That notion, however, isn't the answer either. But it is the idea that has spawned an overwhelming population of interpreters, regulators, lawyers, and judges – people who believe they understand both the problem and solution better than we do. In fact, however, to a great degree they create the complexity. And since they also decide what is right and wrong, they're certain to be right. Just ask them.

Mencken's aphorism is somewhat dismissive of the views of any who would not overthink an issue in search of complexity where there is simplicity. If some see all simple answers as wrong, that does not make their view true. Some problems are straightforward no matter how earnest the protests of those who have a vested interest in complexity. Not every problem is complex, although the idea can be used as code for saying that the other person, the one who sees the issue as straightforward, doesn't understand it, but the “expert” does. You're dumbⁱⁱⁱ and he's thoughtful and can analyze the problem better than you. Sometimes you don't understand the problem, or your ideology gets in the way of your admitting it, though, fortunately, he possesses neither of those flaws.

But sometimes there is a simple answer. Not every problem is complex and requires endless regulations and delays. Even if that's not the case, though, sometimes you're willing to accept the complexities, or at least put them aside, so that you can act quickly.^iv “Analysis paralysis” is too often the result of trying to account for too much – for finding complexity where there is none. Sometimes, though, and to some people, having no answer is better than having one that is not so comprehensive as to deal with every potential implication of the problem that might exist. It's better to do nothing, they believe, than not to do everything.^v And sometimes the attempt to find a complex single universal answer to what is really a simple problem causes more harm than good. The answer may be far more complex than the question, and it may lead to other problems. “Science^vi is always wrong, it never solves a problem without creating ten more,” wrote George Bernard Shaw.

In all fairness, though, Mencken was right, even if his statement was misleading. Every problem does have “an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong.” But that's not all it has. It has both simple and complex solutions. It has those that are clear and those that are unclear. And, most importantly, it has those that are right and those that are wrong. It's up to you to decide the answer that best applies to the situation from among the variety available. Don't make it more meddlesome than it has to be. Remember that sometimes the solution – including the unintended consequences – is worse than the problem, and the response should not be to "solve" new situations with additional complex procedures which make things even worse. KISS.^vii Don't be seduced by a perceived need to make changes. Not everything needs to be changed. Don't just do something, stand there.

Next episode: “BDS – Biased, Divisive, Sophistry” – Something for everyone.

(PS -- Happy Groundhog's Day)

i        Don't look at me. I'm from the “Simplify, simplify simplify” school.

ii      I can never remember if it's “converse,” “reverse,” “obverse,” “inverse,” “perverse,” or whatever, but you get the point.

iii     Actually he probably wouldn't use such a direct insult, although he would certainly try to impress you with his superiority and his insight into the problem. Of course you cannot be expected to understand the implications as well as he.   After all, he's the expert.

iv     For example, there were many complexities on December 8, 1941.  A declaration of war was the simple solution, though not the only one.

v       It is a position that doesn't sanction compromise.

vi      Shaw writes of “science,” but too often the same situation pertains in social and political issues.

vii     “Keep it simple, stupid.” That's the quote, but of course I don't consider you stupid. I didn't make it up and I'm not responsible. I would never be so disrespectful. I think you're smart, so KISS, keep it simple smarty.