Have
you noticed? There are two major engineering projects going on in
the automobile industry – at least two that have gotten a lot of
publicity and that I'm aware of. They're hybrids and self-driving
cars. The first has already hit the market and most manufacturers
have at least some form that's available, so I'll mostly ignore it.
(I'll mention it only once for purposes of comparison and once in the
conclusion.) Self-driving cars, however, are worth discussing more
fully.
If
the road does not have too many potholes, the car is a wonderful
means of transportation. (And the driver's license is a wonderful
means of identification.) But it is accompanied by problems. The
most important of these is the fact that it may be involved in
accidents with associated injury or death. The National Safety
Council estimates that as many as 40,200 people died in our country
in 2016 as a result of automobile accidents and that property
damage in 2016 was
$432 billion. Both represented increases. Self-driving cars are
likely to lower the human and economic tolls markedly. The concern
of those developing them are (apart from making money) relates to the
good of the individual.
Another
problem is that automobile emissions contribute to pollution and
global warming. This is the problem addressed by hybrid vehicles,
and reflects concern for the good of society as a whole. But, based
on my own priorities when driving along, the first concern is for my
own safety.
What
are the advantages of self-driving cars? Ultimately driving skills
will not be necessary, though for the time being it is recommended
that a knowledgeable driver should have his hands on the steering
wheel and be able to take over in a dangerous situation. Eventually
manned taxis and cars-for-hire will not be necessary because
for those who don't have their own such vehicles, but driverless car
services of various kinds will be available.
There
are numerous other anticipated advantages to be obtained by such a
system: those who drink will be able to do so without fear of
violating the law (in retrospect I'm not sure that's so desirable),
those who are ill or disabled can get to the doctor's office even if
they can no longer drive, the tension of driving can be eliminated,
people can carry on undistracted conversations and telephone calls,
etc.
Of
course, not everyone agrees.
Writing from Detroit
(coincidentally, the capital of the traditional gas-guzzling,
emission-spewing automobile), two New York Times reporter that “the
race by automakers and technology firms to develop self-driving cars
has been fuelled by the belief that computers can operate a vehicle
more safely than human drivers. But that view is now in question
after the revelation on Thursday that the driver of a Tesla Model S
electric sedan was killed in an accident when the car was in
self-driving mode.”
(Op-ed in The Guardian by John Naughton)
It is of note that the driver's hands
were on the wheel (as he is instructed by the manufacturer, a
condition that won't be required in the long run) and that, in the
United States, eighty-nine other drivers were killed in automobile
accidents – all of whom were driving without electronic aid.
“Human drivers” don't guarantee safety nearly as well as
computers.
And there are other reasons that
self-driving cars are viewed with alarm.
In June, Christopher A. Hart, the
chairman of the National Transportation Safety Board, said,
“Driverless cars could save many if not most of the 32,000 lives (a
different number from that above but that doesn't change the thrust
of the reporter's argument)
that are lost every year on our streets and highways.” Even if
self-driving cars only realize a fraction of their projected safety
benefits, a decline in the number of available organs could begin as
soon as the first wave of autonomous and semiautonomous vehicles hits
the road—threatening to compound our nation’s already serious
shortages. (Slate
“Magazine”)
How do you argue with that grave concern?
And why waste your time doing so?
Combine
the two technologies, self-driving hybrid cars, and we would
certainly begin to address the woes of both individuals and society.
There will always be critics and cranks, but they don't merit our
attention. Progress is our most important product.
July 26, 2017
