Global Warming And Arrogance

The world has been around for billions of years. At least that's what I've read. I can't testify to it personally. I haven't been around for quite that long.

I've also read that there have been changes over time. Darwin and others have expounded on evolution and how plant and animal life have varied, and life on earth has been severely impacted by extraterrestrial phenomena, sometimes with severe effects on the mortality of our terrestrial life forms. A good example is the extinction of dinosaurs (and who knows what else) following our being hit by a meteor. Things can happen, and they do.

We are now entering a period characterized by increasing temperatures – Global Warming – that has provoked great debates. Many believe that human actions are responsible for what is happening, and they're focusing their attention on what steps we must take to repair the world. Without any intent to question their concern, I think their view is a little narrow, and there are several questions that need answers:

1. How do we define such “warming?”
2. Should we be concerned about it?
3. What causes it?
4. Does human action contribute to it?
5. Can we stop it or at least limit it?
6. At what cost?
7. What are the likely effects of our actions?

It's a lot to consider, but I thought I'd start with a quote from the Wikipedia article on the subject:

The idea that Global Warming is a natural cycle is well understood from paleo data covering the past 1 million years. Is there a difference between current climate, and the natural cycle? For the past million years the natural climate has oscillated between warm periods and ice ages. This shifting in and out of warm periods and ice ages is correlated strongly with Milankovitch cycles.

I don't pretend to understand the subject all that well – especially Milankovitch cycles – but it's clear that warming happens. It's an anticipated feature related to the earth's position relative to the sun and happens without human actions. According to NASA, the earth has warmed 0.9^o Celsius since 1880 – almost 140 years. It seems like a small number, and it's below the peaks in some other periods of warming, but it's significant, and how much higher the peak it will go if it continues to rise is uncertain. There is certainly justification for concern.

And we're concerned. But many think that we're responsible for global warning. It's just like us humans to be so arrogant, so chutzpadik. We weren't around billions of years ago, but everything went on without us. Including global warming. We're not to blame for it.

But we're not off the hook altogether. We ought not wallow in hubris, but we do have some effect on the heavens and on earth. There's much argument about the existence of global warming and its cause(s). Some think that over the long haul we're in a period of cooling. Not likely, but it doesn't change anything. We don't cause cooling either.

There's much evidence, however, that we can affect the degree and the rate of warming. Without debating all the scientific equations and computer models – especially since I don't understand them – it's hard to ignore the predominant opinion of the scientific community that some of what we're producing is driving up the temperature. Whether what we do results in increased levels of carbon dioxide, an enlarging hole in the ozone layer, or something else, they're convinced that we can cause harm. How much? I don't know. I certainly wouldn't postulate on behalf of those who fear cooling that we accelerate programs that cause warming in order to fend off another ice age. Thinking that we can do so is more arrogance.

Recognizing the disagreement, it appears that our approach should be prudent. Proposals to change the nature of those products that appear to be contributing to warming are reasonable. But the changes should themselves be reasonable. Disruption of our lives and industries in the hope of an improvement in the situation is not the answer. (It is not arrogance to suggest that we're able to make many aspects of our situation worse. We've proved we can do that.) Improved utilization of natural forces (eg wind power) is expensive, but perhaps that is only in the short range. Substitution of products less likely to disrupt our earth and its environment makes sense as well.

What makes less sense is the mandate for rapid changes that will greatly unsettle our lives and industries. Inducements for improvements are warranted, but rapid, unthought-out, actions often lead to harmful results. It is presumptuous to believe that we can change the course of global warming quickly – or even at all. But that doesn't mean we shouldn't try.

With humility.






May 22, 2017

Seasons Of Our Discontent

 

                                                                                  

I like where I'm living. The seasons change from time to time. It's not like living somewhere that has the same weather all year round.ⁱ And even if they may vary by a day or two some years, the variation in the seasons is only on the calendar – not affecting the change in weather that occurs.

That's reassuring. Every year the same seasons lasting the same length of time. I might like to fiddle a little with the dates on the calendar,ⁱⁱ but I know there will be a cold season, a hot one, and two in between. We'll get our weather more or less in 91 day doses.

Each season is about three months. “About,” because the way we've chosen to define them – using the equinoxes and day length as our markers – provides us with periods of this length. They're arbitrary and not really necessary. The weather would change without them.ⁱⁱⁱ But we've decided to create a system by which we recognize four seasons, and it's the same every year. And even if the weather on a particular day may not fit the mold, on the whole it is relatively predictable. Nature has its act together and we accept its dictates.

But people have an ax to grind. Money.^iv So “seasons” that are governed by human criteria seem to change from year to year. They get longer.^v For example, at one time Christmas was on December 25^th. A few days before may have been necessary to prepare, but the focus of the holiday was religious, and the 25^th itself held the greatest importance. But later, with an increasing emphasis on presents, the “Christmas Season” was advertised as soon as Thanksgiving ended, and eventually there was a day by day count of the number of shopping days until Christmas. Now we don't even wait for Thanksgiving before we start hawking presents, with the season beginning months in advance.

Other seasons have lengthened too, usually with the same motive. What was once a single day remembrance of our first president has become “Presidents'” week with big sales to mark the week. Of course it lasts more than a week, but that gives the various vendors – usually automobile companies – more time to convince you that their products are just what you need. It's a real hustle.

Sales abound, and often they're associated with holidays. Whether it's clothing for Easter, electronics for Labor Day, food for Thanksgiving, or any number of other products, no opportunity is missed to remind us that we need all of those things to celebrate the season and the holiday properly. The day when we used to celebrate our independence has become the season when we can buy grills, charcoal, and all the trimmings necessary for a barbecue. And what better time to sell flags and flowers than the weeks before Memorial Day. Capitalism has its attractions, but it's too bad that it flourishes by the sacrifice of occasions that used to have real meaning.

Even more striking has been the way we enjoy sporting events. At one time there was a baseball season, a football season, one for basketball, and one for hockey. There was some overlap, but not too much. That, sadly, has changed. Regular seasons have lengthened, playoffs have been added, and, naturally, revenues have gone way up.^vi Now that press attention to football practice games begins during the summer and the regular football season extends nearly to the baseball spring training season, there's almost no time to rest. No. There's no time at all. Basketball and hockey seasons fill in the autumn and winter, and even extend into the spring. What used to be well-defined seasons are now long economic opportunities. Like the Olympics.

Perhaps the longest season, however, is the election season. And it's the most annoying. It's said that the campaign for reelection begins on the day after Election Day. Or if it's not the campaign for reelection, it's the campaign for nomination. Politicians always seem to be fighting with each other, whether the battle is between parties on the basis of party “principles,”^vii or within parties to demonstrate someone's worthiness for nomination. So all year round we're sent campaign literature – often disguised as information for constituents and paid for by the voters through the incumbent's franking privilege. However you frame it though, the election “season” is never ending. There may be an acceleration of activities a few months before Election Day^viii but the partisanship, politicking, and posturing are always with us. Before the rise of national media and before the institution of the primaries, the election season was relatively short. Now it's interminable. And it's a real hassle.

We need some time off. We need some time between the long seasons we've produced. That can only come about if we go back to a time when seasons were shorter and more predictable; when there was a time between seasons when we could catch our breath. It was a time we were concerned about filling the leisure time that modern inventions would produce; a time when we didn't anticipate the lack of leisure time that modern society would impose on us.

But a return to the past won't happen.^ix At least not soon. So until then I propose that there be a new holiday – a nothing day. It will be a day between seasons. A day that nothing happens. Except, of course, the mammoth sale of leisure items, beginning at 4 AM.

Next episode: “ Watch Your Language” – Be careful or you may say what you really mean.

i     Even paradise can get boring.

ii    See “Klutz or Kluznik,” January 14, 2011.

iii    At least it would where I live.

iv    Or is that the whetstone? I'm having a little difficulty with the metaphor.

v     Last week (I'm writing this on July 24^th) I received a leaflet telling me of the back-to-school sales that were taking place at a nearby office supply store. The “back-to-school” season is beginning earlier and earlier every year.

vi    So have players' salaries and ticket prices. Sporting events are among our most popular entertainments and promoters are happy to pay the entertainers well for bringing in the crowds, since the audiences leave a lot of money behind not just for the tickets, but for the food and souvenirs. And by popularizing the entertainment itself, the television revenues increase.

vii    I don't believe that any more than you do. They're taking a stand that they can point to in the next election – one that they'll claim shows that they're more attuned to the wishes of the voters than their opponents.

viii   It may be years rather than months when an individual concludes that he or she is fit to be President.

ix    We've even found a way to outwit Nature and the original seasons. Now we start selling fashions many months before the time when they'll be needed. Commercialism wins again.

Miñana

 

It doesn't matter what the schedule says, some people will be late. Changing the schedule to account for them works only once. They learn quickly, even if they can't learn anything else. And there's always an excuse.

That's the sad story of the minyan, the quorum of ten Jewish men needed for communal prayer. Actually the same problem exists for all get-togethers, whether social events or committee meetings. But for most of them the number is less critical. So I'll discuss the reasons given for lateness at minyan, recognizing that with minor exceptions the same will apply to other events.

“My alarm clock didn't work.” Unlikely. But it's better than telling the truth. (“I didn't set the alarm.”) It's always better to blame something mechanicalⁱ – something that can't defend itself.

“I got to sleep late.” “I didn't sleep well.” “I'm not feeling well.” Certainly no one would expect you to endanger your health when the fates are arrayed against you.

“I had to take care of my children.” That's always good. Blame the kids. Or your spouse.ⁱⁱ It isn't your fault. Someone else is responsible. And speaking of responsibility, child care will earn you points.

In winter if it's snowing: “I couldn't dig the car out.” There's an escape clause for circumstances beyond our control.

Any other time of year if it isn't beautiful outside: “The weather was bad.” Okay. Your definition of “bad” is a little more expansive than everyone else's.

And when you can't blame the weather: “I was parked in.” Otherwise I surely would have been there.

Those, however, are the excuses. They're not the real reasons why people don't come or are late if they do. Some of the reasons have made their way into song titles: “Slowpoke,” “Undecided,” “Scatterbrain,” “Lazybones,” and “Mañana” are the less accusatory ones. But “Call Me Irresponsible” and “I Won't Grow Up” are more to the point.

Even those, however, don't get at the real problems – those of intent. For example, some people are always late by the same amount, irrespective of the schedule. They refuse to come on time. They want to be needed. It's not important to them that they've kept others waiting. In fact they may revel in that fact. That problem arises irrespective of the scheduled starting time. Late people will be late, no matter what you do. For some it is an exercise of power and for others it is a matter of fashion. It ensures that they will be noticed. Nine little Indians are desperate for the tenth. In any case, it is evidence that they don't care about others who are foolish enough to take schedules seriously. They have other priorities. They'll come in “the fullness of time.”ⁱⁱⁱ

Some claim that there is “Jewish time” (the same phenomenon exists in other cultures since indifference is not limited to a single group) and that they are not expected to be on time. A schedule is for Yekkies. ^iv They place some degree of sanctity on the time. An appointment is a promise. There is no such thing as “fashionably late.”

As for the tardy ones, being late also shortens the event for them. It makes davening, the prayer service, take less time. It gives them extra prep-time and allows them to get credit for attending with a smaller investment. It doesn't matter if it means that other have to wait. In fact, that may make it better.

What can be done about the problem? Nothing.^v Lean back and enjoy it. Whatever you do, don't try to accommodate them. If you try to move the schedule to something approximating their usual times, they'll change. As much as they offer excuses, they want to be late. All you'll accomplish is an even later time so you'll have to wait longer. They'll love it.

Next episode: “Make War, Not Love” – Evolution is evolution.



ADDENDUM – PLEASE NOTE:  Today is September 11, 2012 (some time after the original publication of this essay).  I just discovered that over a year ago I omitted "Make War, Not Love" and went on to the next essay.  Unfortunately I can't backdate it, so I'll put it in during this month – sometime in the next day or so.  But you'll know where it really belongs.  At least you'll know if you look back at old essays.


 

i     It's getting harder to do as more and more things get computerized. Computers are too stupid to make such “mistakes.” They'll respond the same way every time to whatever instructions they get from their human masters.

ii     He or she was sick, took too long to dress, wasn't ready to take responsibility for the children, etc. Different variations may be used depending on the event and who's invited. If the excuse is needed for a committee meeting at work, don't be late or absent too often. The job market is weak. And each grandmother can only die once. 
iii     Although they may interpret that to mean they'll come when they're good and ready, in “Yes Minister” it was clear that it meant “never.”

iv    Originally German Jews, but now, more loosely, applied to compulsive individuals who can't help but follow the rules.

v     “Que sera, sera.”

Blue Skies

Blue Skiesⁱ

I hate spring.

Actually it's beautiful. I know that. Crocuses are reaching for the sun and buds are starting to appear on the trees. Although winter is not completely gone, and some cold days remain, warm winds are starting to find their way by our faces, and the last vestiges of snow are disappearing. Gentle rains are starting to fall which aren't oppressive but rather welcome as relief from what we've been suffering. And in between the showers there are clear blue skies and, soon, the yellow-green leavesⁱⁱ that signal the rich green that is to follow.ⁱⁱⁱ

As the days lengthen the birds are returning and now they are singing. Some of them seem a little bulky, and it seems clear that a new generation will be appearing soon. That's the hallmark of the season. It's not just the prerogative of young men, nor their fancy – spring fever affects all of us, man and animal alike,^iv and we're all affected by the climate of rebirth.

But I hate spring.

I love winter. Not so much the weather, which I find to be more than I can bear.^v And certainly not the sentence of house arrest brought on by the short days. Cabin fever is a real ailment, and I suffer from it as much as others. The season is cold and dark, and even the house seems cold. Tempers are on edge because of the confinement. No one wants to go out, but no one wants to have to stay in either.

But I love winter for one important reason. It holds the promise of spring. The days are starting to get longer and there is hope and anticipation about. It will all end soon, but not a moment too soon.

And then it actually ends. Spring comes. And the moment is too soon. The time for which we've all been waiting – the promise we prayed would be kept – has come, and there is a letdown. Soon, with the coming of summer, the trees will be full and all we'll have ahead of us is the deterioration of nature heralding winter. Sure, there will be a bright and clear autumn, but however glorious it may be, it will carry with it the inevitability of the coming season. I love winter, but only because of the expectations it brings. Otherwise I hate the season and I hate anticipating it.

And so when spring comes, as warm and welcome as it may be, we have lost the chance to yearn; we can no longer wait for it, with all the excitement that comes with anticipation. It will be over soon, at least until next year – but who can think that far ahead.

Next episode: "The Need To Know" – Bull from the bears.

i     With apologies to Irving Berlin.

ii    I like the willows best.

iii    All my perceptions assume the Northern Hemisphere, but I also know that my melancholy would be just as severe – though offset by six months – if I lived in the Southern Hemisphere.

iv    Yes. I'm aware that we're animals. But the cliché expresses the idea so well.

v    When I was younger, and better able to tolerate the cold, it wasn't so bad; when shoveling snow wasn't the ordeal it is now, I gloried in the change of seasons and winter was a big part of it. And when playing, or, later, playing with my children and making snow angels, it was almost enjoyable.