Reign, Reign, Go Away

 

“Après moi, le déluge” Louis XV is reputed to have said this,ⁱ although he was not thinking about rain at the time. He was certainly not considering Cairo, where the annual rainfall averages less than a half inch. In all of Egypt it it is usually less than three and a half inches. The annual overflow of the Nile between June and September – at least until the building of the Aswan Dam in July, 1970 – provided the water needed to grow crops.

Le déluge, however, came to Cairo in January and February of 2011. It came in the form of a peaceful revolution, with protesters filling Tahrir Square (Liberation Square) and protesting until Hosni Mubarak stepped down.

This wasn't the first revolution in the area: demonstrations had forced Tunisian President Ben Ali to resign just prior to the events in Egypt. In fact, the rallies in Tunisia had sparked those in Egypt. And there has been subsequent ferment in Bahrain and chaos and tragedy in Libya, with unrest in Yemen, Iran, Algeria, Morocco, Jordan, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as that continuing in the “West Bank” and Gaza. North Africa and the Middle East are in turmoil.ⁱⁱ It is impossible to know what other countries may be involved by the time this is printed, nor what governments will have fallen.

It cannot be denied that the free flow of information through broadcasts and via the internet and the various social networks contributed to the rapid spread of rebellion. When uprisings occurred in numerous European countries in 1848, the spread of information – and revolution – took longer, as was also the case during the fall of the Soviet bloc in Eastern Europe in the 1980s and 1990s. But in both cases the revolutionaries in one country took heart from the successes of their fellows elsewhere.

Looking at the current ongoing crisis, it is difficult to know what was the precipitating cause, although there are several factors which surely contributed. Among them are the poverty of much of the population, corruption by public officials, and the tyranny under which the people lived.ⁱⁱⁱ What do the protesters seek? Certainly not a new king or despot. They all yearn for democracy, although they may not really understand what that means.

Democracy is messy. Despotism is less so. You can make the trains run on time if those in your way are eliminated. It's not so easy if you have to contend with unions and the next election. But that is what makes a real democracy self-correcting. An orderly procedure is in place for changing governments when there is unhappiness with existing policies. It may not be as rapid as with a revolution, the knowledge that governmental change is possible, however, will usually be a good incentive for leaders not to stray too far from the will of their constituents.

But revolution does not necessarily lead to democracy. Following the Russian Revolution the Bolsheviks and the Mensheviks split, and the former suppressed the latter. The resulting government was certainly no democracy. The “people” may have rid themselves of the czar, but the government they got instead was no bargain. And when the Iranians expelled the Shah, the ayatollah who replaced him did not ordain a free government and one following the will of the people.

And democracy also has risks. Differences of opinion are not easily suppressed, and may lead to unrest even in a democratic society. The American Civil War, which took place before the federal government was as powerful as it is now, is an example of such an event. But there are other risks. Not all “free” elections are honest. The election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was questioned by a large part of the Iranian population as well as by many other nations, but once in control of the government, the President suppressed opposition. So now there is new unrest in Iran and, if its leaders are not killed or jailed, the Iranian “democracy” may fall. And although Hitler came in second in the German elections of 1932, as part of the democratic process the following year he was appointed Chancellor and put in a position to totally eliminate democracy^iv from his adopted country.^v Meaningful voting is based on a culture and on education, and premature voting – especially that based on disinformation and emotion – is likely to lead to tyranny, not democracy.

And that is the problem in much of the world now in turmoil. There is no culture that can be expected to provide a base for a lasting democracy. Revolution is a rejection of existing conditions. It is a negative act. Democracy – real democracy – is positive. It does not focus solely on elimination of the old, but provides choices for the new. There are alternatives, not just the leader of an uprising. And a system like our own, with checks and balances, prevents any one individual, party, or bureau from becoming too powerful.

This is democracy as we understand it, but for many others “democracy” is simply a mantra aimed at toppling a government in power. The result is not likely to be a freely elected government, especially if a nation has been taught that religious laws, and hence religious officials, are paramount. A more probable result is a new tyranny, a military coup, or the election of a radical group which will take the country to a situation as bad, if not worse, than the current one. But what is the alternative?

The present situation has been fueled by information. The information has been of several kinds. It has included exposés of the impossibly difficult situation of a country's population and the benefits and powers of its leaders, the lives of others around the globe and the kinds of government they enjoy, and the steps that others have taken to rid themselves of the dictators who rule them. Our own government has broadcast extensively about democracy and its advantages, as well as the relative well-being of our own citizens. It's no wonder that others seek similar situations. We have given them the beginnings of an education.

This is the direction we must follow. More education. More information. We have preached democracy and we must support it. Not all the results will be favorable, but some will. And if the others relapse into new tyrannies, there will be future revolutions. It's up to us to provide the education, and perhaps eventually others will learn from it. Tranquility, unfortunately, is not at hand. We can hope for peace and real democracies, but it's more likely that additional dictatorships will follow. In the end though, the decision is theirs. Deluge or gentle nourishing spring rain. We can only hope for the best.

 

Next episode: Bowerman, Fixx And The Mexican Cartel – The worse it tastes, the better it is for you.

i     Some attribute it to Madame de Pompadour.

ii    Most of this seems to be a complete surprise to the current American administration and there seems to be no plan for dealing with it except to condemn Israel. The UN Security Council tried to do so but the United States, bowing to the large majority of American public opinion, vetoed the resolution, only to denounce Israel afterwards. It has since condemned Libya but it remains to be seen if this censure is, like most actions against countries other than Israel, a one-time affair.

iii    It's interesting that although most of the problems in the area are attributed to the issue of Palestine, this was not a matter of great significance to those who rebelled. All politics is local. The Palestinian issue seems to have been a smokescreen used by leaders of the countries involved to distract their own citizens from the difficulties which existed locally. That is not surprising. It is shameful, however, that other nations, under the cover of the United Nations, have abjectly surrendered to the Arab position and, while Middle East tyrants oppressed their own people, only displayed an interest in destroying the area's sole democracy. Those nations demonstrated a greater concern for Arab oil than Arab freedom and lives.

iv    He turned Germany into a military dictatorship.

v     Hitler was an Austrian who got German citizenship – and the right to run in German elections – because he served, as a result of an appointment, as administrator for the Brunswick state's delegation to the Reichsrat (with the Reichstag, one of the two German legislative bodies) in Berlin. Citizenship came with the appointment.