Small Numbers, Big News

Currently in the news is the disappearance of a Indonesian airplane with 162 people aboard. It is not unreasonable to assume that it has crashed killing all aboard, but it has not yet been located.ⁱ

It's big news. Viewers and readers are eating it up. It may even convince some of them not to fly, although flying is a safe form of transportation. Between 1990 and 2000 there was one death for over twelve billion passenger miles. Actually it's the safest form of transportation. More than sixty-two drivers and riders died going the same distance and one thousand eighty-four walkers – probably from exhaustion.

Obviously the decision not to fly but to find some other form of transportation would be harmful to the airline industry, and counterproductive for the consumer. But the feeling of loss of control and a potential “all or nothing” outcome is enough to stir both the fascination and the fear of many.  So the media are all over the story.

The secret of selling newspapersⁱⁱ to a gullible public is to pull their strings and push their buttons. People look for the unusual – the unexpected. So if the headline is “Man Bites Dog” you can be sure the paper will sell. And if it's “Headless Corpse Found In Topless Bar,” the paper will need an extra edition. The more eye catching and bizarre the story and its headline, the better. Especially if it involves someone well-known. And even moreso it tears him down – politically, economically or (and this is the real attraction) sexually. Voyeurism is a big seller.

Another attraction for readersⁱⁱⁱ is the catering to their preconceived beliefs. Allege police misconduct and all the agitators will run out to get papers. It doesn't matter that the vast majority of interactions between the police and the public are beneficial, and it doesn't even matter if the allegations are not proven. That's what they want to read. Say something suggestive about a personality and the People Magazine crowd will line up;^iv describe a gory murder in an Iowa house and everyone else will read about it, and then lock their doors. The more unlikely an event, and the less likely that it will affect the reader, the greater its power to attract a big audience.^v

One thing is certain. The common doesn't sell. No one cares about what he sees every day. It's not news. No one is interested in what he experiences – only in what he fantasizes. So if he has fears that his plane may go down, now he has justification. It doesn't matter that the numbers are small. The news is big.

I        Why that is the case is not clear to me. I'm sure that all airplanes have, or could have, GPS or other satellite tracking devices that would lead searchers to the wreckage (or, less likely but more hopefully, the intact plane which has landed safely).

ii       I 'm using newspapers as the model but obviously the same is true of the other media. In all likelihood, the internet will exceed them all until the next form of communication comes along.

iii      See note number 2 (ii).

iv      Or the New York Times readers if it's a Republican.

v       Actually, if I'm talking about newspapers, “vidience” is a better word – whether or not it exists.