Come Fly With Me

 

 

Let me guess that it will be a generation. Or, maybe, less. Actually I think it will be less but I prefer to overstate estimates like this. After all, a basic change in society can't be rushed.ⁱ But it will happen. I'm sure of that.

It all started with the couch potato. No. I'm sure it started long before that but I'll use that vegetative citizen as my stepping-off point. Actually he did not step. That was the point of the whole thing. The remote control for his televisionⁱⁱ was all he needed to survive. That and his TV dinner of course. Movement needed to be kept to a minimum, and that was his way.

But other movement must be considered as well. Like travel. And, not to flog a dead horse, it's on the way out. We're approaching the end of travel. I don't mean completely. People will often move from place to place. Especially immigrants. But most travel in America, and eventually elsewhere, is likely to be on the way out.

Why do people travel at all? (I don't mean why do they go to the storeⁱⁱⁱ, but rather I'm thinking of the trips out of the neighborhood.) For business, to see family, to see sights, and to move. There's not much more to it than that. But with the economy as it is, and gas prices high,^iv and with the cost of commercial transportation and even private cars always going up, there's a decreasing call for tickets on the various airliners^v and trains. And with the high cost of gas it is becoming more and more prohibitive to drive. Of course you could take a cheap bus, but the number of bus accidents has been increasing recently as a result of their own cost-saving measures. No. It's cheaper and safer to stay at home.

And that's the origin of the “staycation.” Vacation time is increasingly spent at home because that's cheaper than traveling. As the song goes, you don't need more than you can find “Back In Your Own Backyard.”^vi

As for business,^vii there will always be some travel to demonstrate products and have a buyer touch them and try them out, but there is an increasing reliance on video conferencing and other similar techniques to negate the need for much other business travel. Many who formerly traveled to work now engage in work from home – by telecommuting. The cost of clothing is lower as are the expenses of the automobile, or those of other transportation previously required. There's a decreased need for expensive office space and the risks of travel are reduced, lowering the cost to insurers.^viii

Communications have had a major effect on how we relate to each other. I, for example, see my daughter, who lives thousands of miles away, more frequently than sons who live closer. That's because I visit with her (and her kids) almost daily via the internet, using my video camera and a free telephone line. I can recall the time when we made expensive long-distance calls. We kept them short because of the costs, but now they're free, and we can see our grandchildren as they are growing up. And they can see us. We're not the strangers we might have been. We still visit, but it's as much to be in a foreign country – to visit it – as to see them. It's nice to see them, but we've already managed to keep up on their activities.^ix So we use the visit more as a vacation – as sight-seeing.

What about vacations and sight-seeing? Will they last? Well the vacations will. In fact I wouldn't be surprised if our time off increases. Our own laziness will see to that.^x But the nature of vacations is changing. Since it is becoming less necessary to visit with family members,^xi all that remains is the sight-seeing, and it can't be too long before that is replaced by virtual reality.^xii It will be far cheaper and won't require sitting in uncomfortable airline seats or spending inordinate amounts of time on travel. Nor paying for the hotel or motel.^xiii They will be the basis of your staycation. There's nothing more comfortable than your own bed, and with a virtual reality vacation you won't have to leave it. 

Moving isn't likely to be a major reason for travel. Homes are difficult to sell, and more and more people are fixing up what they have rather than looking elsewhere. It may not be good for truck manufacturers and the moving industry, however we've made our bed and now we must lie in it. We can't afford to move it. Especially if we have nowhere to go.

The outlook for travel appears gloomy to me.^xiv I'm not suggesting that travel will cease^xv – only slow down. But I suspect it will slow down significantly. It may take time, but it will happen. And the transportation and travel industries will fight back. Airplanes will become far more comfortable and luxurious. Trains will be faster.^xvi Cars will be more intricately linked to automated guidance systems and to television cameras and radar, and they will become self-driving and parking as well as safer. Trips will take less time as well, with the automated systems avoiding traffic and other obstructions. But gas prices will continue to rise, and the cost of cars, as well as airplane and train rides, will also get higher and higher. The defensive actions will be only temporary helps. The long-term trend will be away from travel. It will cause a significant change in our lives and in our economy, but the trend is unstoppable. When travel industry stocks tank, don't say I didn't warn you.

Next episode: “An Era Is Ending” – And America will never be the same.

i     I'm not talking about the end of band concerts. I've covered that topic.

ii    We've really progressed. Now there's a remote control for almost everything except going to the bathroom. And that will come too. Be patient. Hold it in.

iii    Though this will be eliminated soon enough. I also don't mean that there will be an end of the rite of passage which involves teen-agers getting driver's licenses and their “freedom.” But don't ask one of them for a ride. You won't get it. No matter how many times you've taken him where he wants to go. 

iv    Actually they're much higher in other countries, but we don't consider them. That's not our problem.

v     And don't forget the cost of the extra baggage you'll need.

vi    Dreyer and Rose. Al Jolson is also credited as a writer – in fact the first one – but his contribution, if any, was probably minimal. The song was recorded in 1928, but probably written earlier.

vii    Read “money.” That will prolong some travel – for a while at least.

viii    Of course this also increases the pool of people available for work which will both increase the number of those out of work and lower the cost of labor. That's good for those who employ them, even if it's not optimal for the economy and the workers themselves.

ix     With communication improvements, letters gave way to the telephone (letters hardly exist anymore – certainly not the long, informative letter of the past), and the telephone to the internet. And now we make video calls over the internet. Science changes everything.

x      As it has to the remote control. Who wants to stand up to change channels? Actually we could provide additional jobs by hiring people to change the channels for us. But a remote control is cheaper.

xi    Except when we're looking for a free place to stay. Hotels are far too expensive. But we can stay at a relative's house because he's away, imposing on another member of the family.

xii    And that includes amusement parks as well. A virtual roller coaster ride will be just as exciting as the real thing, though it may be safer. And it can't be too long before a computer is hooked up to your bathtub so you can experience the joys of a water park without leaving home.

xiii    Unless you stay with family or friends, whose life you'll make miserable. They'll be happy to see you leave.

xiv    Actually, to those who make a living from travel. Not to me. I like to stay at home anyway, so my major benefit from more costly and complicated travel is to provide me with more weapons to hassle others.

xv    We still need road building to provide jobs and the highways to get food and other things to market – and to provide jobs for road builders and the manufacturers of vehicles. For a while, at least, the economy will protect travel because of a need for those jobs.

xvi    “Bullet” trains are already faster.