Enter Brexit

Werner Heisenberg was born December 5^th, 1901. I'm sure of that – but not much else about him. Except for the fact that he was uncertain.

His uncertainty arose from the idea (fact) that “everything in the universe behaves like both a particle and a wave at the same time.” That's the way author (of, among other things, How to Teach Quantum Physics to Your Dog) Chad Orzel describes the problem, and that it results in the Heisenberg Principle: that you can never simultaneously know the precise position and the exact speed of an object. You may know how fast you're going, but not where you'll end up. Or you may know where you are and where you're heading, but not have any idea of when you'll get there.

I don't pretend to understand what it all means. I'm not a dog, so the explanation eludes me. But it's clear that the principle, which is one of the basic ideas of quantum physics, operates on all levels – not only those of sub-atomic particles.  Proof of that was provided last week when British voters expressed their will to leave the European Union. The decision was unexpected, but the Brits decided to wave goodbye to the continent. Whether the world will ever be the same is uncertain, but even if it is, when that would occur cannot be guessed.

There's a lot being said and a lot being written on the subject, and it's all very tentative. At this point no one knows the timetable for action, not even the British themselves. At least they won't admit to any formal program. (It would be surprising, however, if they hadn't considered possible scenarios, and their reactions to them, prior to the vote, but they aren't revealing any plans yet.) In the meantime, stock markets around the world are fluctuating wildly and negatively to the results of the vote. Economists, bookmakers, and other oracles had expected a decision to remain, and the markets had been going up in anticipation of that outcome. The actual result was a (n alarming) surprise to all of them. The world's largest gambling houses – the stock markets – had bet wrong and were scrambling to minimize their losses. In Heisenberg's terms, they could see what was coming and when, but they had no idea where it was going.

The economic effects of the vote shouldn't be a surprise however. The “science” of economics is advanced well beyond Heisenberg. Economists know neither where they are going nor how fast. They speak with confidence, but the results of their predictions are often wrong. And the prophesies of different practitioners often contradict each other. That's the case even in “normal” times, when there is no extraordinary circumstance like the current crisis.

What's to be done? Many in England are calling for a “do-over,” a repeat of the balloting. Some claim that they didn't have any idea of what the results of separation would be. They had been misled by the plan's proponents. Others stated that their votes had been intended merely as protests – that they hadn't expected this result. But there will be no new vote. The results are final.

But maybe the results are a signal of what's to come. They had as much to do with nationalism, immigration, and pride as they did with economics. And these are all international issues. Perhaps those favoring isolationism around the globe will feel validated by the British vote. Populism may propagate like a wave around the world. England may be the leader of a spreading movement.

For while the wave of the future may lead to world-wide uncertainty, it may not contain a particle of truth. One possible explanation is that the damage is being caused by the rhetoric of paranoids who haven't thought out the implications of their actions. Perhaps unintended consequences are the heritage of this vote, and of others to come.

The time has come to stand there and do nothing. Populist-led action and change are not necessarily the recipes for improvement. We mustn't be led blindly into the “last refuge of scoundrels.” We don't know what lies ahead; indeed there's a lot that we don't know, and never will. Heisenberg has told us this. Brexit proves it. The only possible positive result will be that we learn from it.