Showing posts with label Statistics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Statistics. Show all posts

Sunday, March 31, 2013

Liar, Liar, Pants On Fire


                                                                                 
You think the press is bad? I mentioned recently that only 25% of the people asked by Gallup in a poll taken in June, 2012,i placed great confidence in newspapers.ii A more recent Gallup Poll (November, 2012) asked how respondents judged the “honesty and ethical standards” of people in various fields of endeavor, and the outcome is quite revealing (apart from the 24% rating for journalists, whom people don't trust even though we all “consult” them). For example, 70% of the respondents trusted the honesty and ethical standards of medical doctors, while only 62% trusted dentists; 41% trusted psychiatrists, and 38% chiropractors. But the confidence in nurses was at the 85% level. Even college professors, clergy, and bankers were considered more honest and ethical than journalists with ratings of 53%, 52% and 28%. Not very good to be saddled with such low levels of trust,iii but better than the press, to whom we turn every day.

There are those, however, whom we trust even less than “reporters” of theiv news – as unbelievable as that may sound. For example, although 58% consider policemen to be honest and ethical, we only rate the lawyers who take over from them at 19%.v And the courts are in between.vi In the case of the judicial system, however, the problem may be less a perception of dishonesty than the appearance of poor judgment or incorrect political outlook.vii

In any event, consumers don't trust “car salespeople”viii (8% confidence) or “advertising practitioners” (11%). It appears that lies are more their stock in trade than are the products they sell. Of course, all “lies” aren't really lies. Advertisers have learned how to play on consumers' hopes and fantasies, so they only need to suggest something, or display an attractive image, in order to seduce a prospect and induce a purchase. They don't have to make any claim. Last year over a thousand new perfumes were introduced. With so many already on the market it's hard to believe that any of them broke new ground, but attractive packaging and the imprimatur of a movie star, clothing designer, or other famous personality – one who probably had nothing to do with the development of the scent – and a customer, longing for love or a new “look,” can be convinced to try whatever is advertised so skillfully. (Hope may spring eternal, but when it is stretched too far it is likely to recoil. So second sales may be harder to get.)

And what applies to cars and perfumes applies to other products as well. Whether it's a skin cream,ix laundry detergent, electronic device, or telephone plan, the new product is far superior to anything before.x And the price can't be beaten.xi So what are you waiting for?xii

There are many others who mislead us or lie to us on a regular basis, and when they tell the truth we don't believe them. In the poll that determined honesty and ethical standards ratings of various professions, insurance salespeople earned a 15% very high or high score while it was 12% for HMO managers and 11% for stockbrokers.

No group is as worthy of discussion, however, as politicians. Although nearly half the population approves of the job he is doing, in a poll taken during the 2012 election campaign, Gallup determined that 5% of voters considered honesty as President Obama's greatest strength.xiii His oath of office includes a promise to uphold the Constitution, which many consider to be his first lie as our Chief Executive. Before that, however, come his campaign promises (just as they flower for all politicians who are running for office). Fortunately no one really believes them. So after the election, when they are forgotten or violated, no one honestly believes he has been deceived. Anyway, the fault, is that of the previous administration or the opposite party, who created whatever problems exist and who now prevent their solution. Fortunately there are some successes, but they always come despite the opposition of the other party and all the credit belongs to the President and his party.

But the President wasn't listed in the honesty poll so it is hard to compare him to members of Congress. In 2012 they earned nearly a 43% improvement in the perception of their honesty from the year before. Actually they worked their way up from 7 to 10%, so it's a little less impressive than it sounds.xiv Like those of other politicians, their campaign promises are strictly for their campaigns. So, as is the case with others running for office, they should be judged on the basis of previous performance.

But, of course, it's hard to determine what they've done in before because the past records claimed during an election are unreliable. The usual pattern is that the candidate says wonderful things about himself and his accomplishments while his opponent, in negative ads, defames and accuses him. No. That's wrong. The two defame each other. Claims of your accomplishments are of less interest than what's wrong with your opponent. And the few accomplishments are likely to be bills with attractive titles that mislead the voter about the content and intent. Too often they actually accomplish something other than, or even opposite to, what the title suggests. Caveat emptor. (My favorite – and I've mentioned it before – is the Paperwork Reduction Act which increases governmental paperwork.) But truth in labeling is not required of Congress. And the “transparency” they demand of others certainly doesn't apply to them. It's no wonder that citizens view Congress as a nest of liars.

It should be obvious that a lack of trust is not conclusive proof of someone's deception. Not all politicians are liars. (Whatever the claims they make though, you'd better confirm them yourself.xv) But after all these years, consistent doubt should make us wary of the bold statements we hear. They want to be elected. They're no different from the rest of us. We want to be liked so we often say things we don't believe in order to please someone else. We don't want to deceive – at least that's not the primary goal – but we want to be liked. Just like the newspapers, the advertisers, and the politicians.

To tell the truth, you shouldn't trust anyone.







Next episode: “If I've Said It Once” -- Words to the wise. Words to the wise.










i      For additional information on the methodology and results of Gallup Polls, see http://www.gallup.com

ii     Although I didn't mention it, the number for television news was only 21%.

iii    Especially the clergy.

iv     “their version of the” news would be a more accurate characterization.

v     It may be unfair to categorize an entire profession this way, but that is the perception of the “street.” It is, perhaps, a cliché, however “perception is reality” and, in fact, it guides our beliefs about the group even if such a characterization is not warranted.

vi     When asked about the Supreme Court in a Gallup Poll taken in June, 2012, 37% of respondents expressed “a great deal” or “quite a lot” of confidence in it.

vii    Barry Friedman writes, in an article in the online edition of “The Nation,” which I read on March 11, 2013 – though the date it first appeared is not listed – entitled (Why Are Americans Losing Trust in the Supreme Court?), “The New York Times reports a recent poll showing the Supreme Court’s approval rating at 44 percent. This represents one of the lowest numbers the justices have polled in recent years and is part of a generally downward slide since 2009. ... A plausible answer [to the question posed by the article] is: partisanship. Polls show a widespread disgust with partisanship in Washington; Congress’s approval rating was at an all time low in May. Although the justices often are divided into left-right ideological blocs, those blocs have recently become identified in the public mind with the Democratic and Republican parties.”


Some citizens also take issue with the Court's occasionally finding in the Constitution what they feel ought to be there, even if there is no evidence that it is. See Lochner v New York and Roe v Wade.

viii   Big talk and small print bring high profits even when performance is low. Those believing the claims are all too often disappointed.

ix     Is pomegranate really better for your skin than cucumber? It seems that in every ad there is a new ingredient which is the answer to all your problems. Except gullibility. We keep hoping and we keep buying.

x      And it will remain so until the next version – even better – is introduced soon.

xi     Often the price can't even be found. That particular bargain no longer exists or the product is sold out. But wait. There's something even better (and more expensive). “Bait and switch” is an advertising device often used to maximize revenues. It's used because it works. “Never give a sucker an even break.”

xii    Don't waste your time thinking or comparing.

xiii   Interestingly, 3% considered his greatest strength to be the ability to lie with a straight face.

xiv   In 2011, when they received a 7% rating, they tied with lobbyists and car salespeople. By comparison, journalists got 26% and funeral directors 44%.

xv   As John Locke said, “The only fence against the world is a thorough knowledge of it.”



Sunday, May 27, 2012

Playing The Numbers



Employing modern jargon, I need my space. I'm a pacer. People get in my way.

It's not that I don't like people. At least it's not only that.i And I'm not claustrophobic – at least not in the usual sense. I don't have a phobia, only a need for breathing room. Things have gotten too big for me.

That's a shame. We live in an age of size and numbers. We're reminded of the size issue every time we open our e-mail and look at the spam and find products which I won't discuss. And there are plenty of plastic surgeons who specialize in changing the size of breasts and butts. And lips.

The obsession with numbers, however, seems to be the hallmark of our times. Not just lotto, but everything else as well. Movies and television shows, and the various social networks, are judged by the number of people they attract; sports broadcasting is so filled with statistics that there is no time for anything else – and some of the statistics are so bizarre as to be sillyii; and with modern technology, search engine results are in the tens or hundreds of millions. Numbers are big, and in part that reflects a change in the American (and world) culture, with a fascination for size and records. So all numbers seem to be big.

But the most striking numbers – and, in the end, the most significant – are those related to the “representative” democracy in which we live. When the American Constitution was written,iii note was taken of the need for representatives to be familiar with the people they represented, but in order to limit the size of the House of Representatives theyiv wrote, “The number of representatives shall not exceed one for every 30,000, but each state shall have at least one representative ...”v That was then. The population right nowvi is 313,397,468 with a net gain of one every fourteen seconds. With 435 member of the House, there are now an average of 720,453.949425287356321...vii constituents for each congressman.viii And each district has a variety of neighborhoods and professions. It's likely that the “representative” isn't able to represent much more than himself.ix

To justify their positions our representatives (or their staffs) write bills, long bills. When the Supreme Court considered health care legislation recently, Justice Scalia commented “(W)hat happened to the Eighth Amendment?x You really want us to go through these 2,700 pages?xi And do you really expect the Court to do that? Or do you expect us to — to give this function to our law clerks?”xii The laws themselves are too long,xiii and they often are “fleshed out” by regulations whose elaboration by nameless bureaucrats may dwarf the legislation.xiv

Speaking of “nameless bureaucrats,” as of February, 2010, according to the Employment Situation Summary published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, there were 21,292,000 government employees in the United States. That includes the President's eight speech writers.xv It's likely that the Founding Fathers never anticipated all the complexities we'd create for ourselves.

It's not up to me to decide if a large governmental bureaucracy is good or bad. Both opinions have their adherents. And at a time of high unemployment there's a lot to be said for high government employment, especially in tenured Civil Service positions,xvi but the risks of an unelected – and to a small degree elected, if unrepresentative – body that makes the rules for us, cannot be overlooked.

As for me, I have more important matters to ponder. Will we have a minyanxvii tomorrow morning? But whether or not that that's the case – and I certainly hope we'll have enough – I'm sure I'll have enough room to pace. Large numbers are never a problem there.






Next episode: “All The News ... Addendum” -- Journalism. Take 2.





i     I would have made a great hermit. It's nice having someone to talk to, but only when I want to talk. I know it's a selfish attitude, but I like having someone around on my terms. I like to have plenty of room and not to have to pay any attention to anyone unless I feel like it. I realize that such an outlook is intolerable to others and I try to be sociable, but my heart isn't in it.

ii    Like doubles in the fourth inning on a Tuesday.

iii    1787

iv    Actually it was James Madison who wrote it.

v     Article 1, Section 2, Paragraph 3. Do you know that many? I don't know 30,000 people. Maybe they did but I don't. Nonetheless I can understand their view that this “limitation” would be sufficient to ensure proper representation.

vi    April 20, 2012 at 13:48 UTC – according to the US Census Bureau.

vii    The number just keeps going, but by now you've got the point. And parts of people are a little too difficult to conceive (of).

viii    The number just went up.

ix    But he probably does that admirably.

x     Dealing with cruel and unusual punishment.

xi    The Declaration of Independence, which outlined our ideals, and declared our independence and its justification, was about 1,330 words long and the Constitution about 4,500. The Constitution, of course, outlined our entire governmental system, listing the branches, their duties, and the details of our relations with other nations, among other things. The two together could fit in those 2,700 (plus however many thousand pages of pages are needed to clarify the shorthand of the original law) at 2.16 words per page. That's a lot of white space. It seems clear that the health care law is far more important than the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution.

xii    The Justices, though not elected, go through some form of review by the Senate; the clerks, however, are not in any way representative of the people.

xiii   And there are far too many of them, with the Federal government often taking over areas which the signers of the Constitution intended as the responsibility of the states.

xiv    “If you have ten thousand regulations you destroy all respect for the law.” – Winston Churchill

xv     I wonder how many George Washington had.

xvi    Whoever is elected, irrespective of which party, regulations will be written by these people, and will reflect their views and prejudices. To a degree this ensures stability, but the rules they write may not reflect the wishes of the legislators or their constituents.

xvii    The ten men needed for some parts of the Jewish religious service.