Repairing The Breach

No question about it. PM Netanyahu and Israel's voters have painted themselves into a corner. They may have felt that they had no choice – that they had to go it alone – but the result is that they have thrown down the gauntlet in front of their oldest and most influential ally. In the face of a world that favors the Palestinians, the Israeli electorate has chosen to demonstrate its lack of confidence both in the world, and in its American ally.

It is a basic rule of argument that, even when all “right” is on your side, you do not paint your opponent into a corner if you ever hope to achieve some agreement in the future. There has to be a way out that does not involve a total loss of face. And you certainly don't allow him to corner you.

But the worst possible result is when you do the job for him.ⁱ “Right” and “wrong” are irrelevant issues if an ultimate reconciliation is desirable. If that reconciliation is to be achieved, one side will then have to blink. It will have to back down on an action or a principle that it had theretofore observed or announced – a “red line.” Absent some kind of condition in the original position,ⁱⁱ such a backing down will be an admission of error, and it will trigger a loss of confidence by those who had supported that position until then.

Sadly, however, that is where we are now. A nation that appeared to be weak and adrift when facing terrorism around the world; one that had been signaling its wish to be “evenhanded” in negotiations for a two-state solution to the Israel/Palestine impasse – a nation which initially pledged that Iran would not be permitted to have nuclear weapons, but is now willing to accept them while somewhat delaying their assembly – is seen by Israel as abandoning it. Whether or not the premises and the conclusion were correct, it was foolhardy for the Prime Minister not to take a patriotic stance that was so inflexible rather than one that still had some wiggle room in it. And it was dangerous for a significant part of the electorate to base its choice on that stance. It appears that a chasm has been opened – an irreparable rift between nations that share basic values. And that is a chasm that must be closed.

But how do you do that? Clearly the United States must “win.” If Israel prevails it will be further “proof” to an anti-semitic world that the Jews control our country, and they are the source of all evil. Israel will lose by winning. Our country, which is perceived as weak and leaderless, one already losing the respect of the world, will suffer a further decline in prestige and see its role in world affairs further diminished.

Netanyahu, and Israel, must “lose.” The challenge will be to find a way to do so in a way that can be presented to the voters as a political necessity rather than a disavowal of the promise he made to them. Even if the best result would be a stronger stand by the United States, and that is Israel's goal, Israel will not be permitted to defeat our country in a head-to-head confrontation. Ideally we will recognize the importance of good relations with Israel and the strengthening of our image around the world – it may take years and a change of administration to reach this point – but a breach in our alliance now will make rapprochement in the future more difficult.

Are there any plausible steps that can be made at the present? Perhaps. It's not likely that either side will recant – at least not willingly. Some modifications may be possible however. Most important, though, for the moment at least, not very likely, will be the restoration of American prestige. It will take time for our friends to trust and rely on us again, and it will take time before those who disagree with us take our wishes seriously. We do not project the power and resolve that was, once, our hallmark. But regaining that image is critical to our influence around the world. It has nothing to do with Israel. It's all about us.ⁱⁱⁱ

Israel, however, is a small state. However valuable it may be to us, it must recognize its role as our follower, not as our leader. Netanyahu has pledged not to have a Palestinian state during his time as Prime Minister, but the Knesset can overrule him.^iv Or he can initiate steps that will result in such an entity following the completion of his term.^v Alternatively, Netanyahu, in building a coalition, may be “forced” by potential partners to accept modifications of his pledge, in order to prevent the establishment of a left-wing government that might be worse for the country. And there are, I'm sure, other scenarios that can be adopted.

But Israel must act quickly, before the United States takes any steps by which it paints itself into a corner. Before the United States does anything irreversible, like voting in the UN to authorize a Palestinian State within borders unacceptable to Israel, healing must take place. It's not impossible, but it will be to everyone's best interests if we don't simply sit around and watch the paint dry.

I        It does not matter if your opponent (friend? – the one you are debating – one with whom you might wish ultimate reconciliation) is completely wrong. In fact, if he is completely wrong it's even more important that you leave him a way out.

ii        A “back door” – a condition under which you might modify your position. Or at least a hint that can be “spun” into proof that you have achieved your aim.

iii      The possibility that Iran will develop nuclear weapons must be taken more seriously by us. Initially President Obama pledged that it would never happen (the American people have learned that a leader's pledges aren't worth much, and the Israeli people must learn the same lesson) but those words have been forgotten. Initially, however, the risk was primarily Israel's – the country which Iran had vowed to eliminate. And Israel is expendable. But with Iran's development of intercontinental missiles, the nuclear threat to the United States is a consideration we must factor in. In this case the danger faced by the United States may make it more sympathetic to that facing Israel.

iv       This would result in a new election, but that provides another opportunity for the Israeli electorate to speak its mind.

v        Ideally a strengthened United States will be able to convince the Palestinians to accept a defensible Jewish state within borders agreeable to Israel. And guarantees will be provided for the survival of Israel. Perhaps the possibility of a state when Israel has vowed there will be none, will make the PA more amenable to an agreement.