Predicting The Future

The hardest thing to predict is the future.

That idea is so old that it's long past the cliché stage. But we never stop trying. For example although we may want to know when the Messiah is coming (for the first or second time depending on your theology), our sages have never been able to come up with any kind of prediction that has proved true or that is likely to do so. Indeed, we are taught that this is not something we should be speculating about.

Still, through the ages, we've been fascinated by the possibility that we might be able to foresee what is going to happen (please forgive the tautology). From the ancient oracles through Nostradamus, and to Jeane Dixon and other similar personalities, we've wasted undue attention to the interpretation of “signs,” intestines, tea leaves, Tarot decks, crystal balls, and the like as we plan our lives. We've made astrologers and psychics rich.

And we've also contributed to the coffers of pollsters and the media, by seeking and studying their “scientifically-based” guesses about our future behavior. Often, but certainly not always, they're right. Polls and surveys have long been used in the planning of political campaigns, business models, product offerings and similar enterprises, while others, for example those who inform us of the latest fashions and the music that's likely to be popular – rather than foresee they try to force the future. And because we're so easily led, their prophesies are often self-fulfilling.

One of my biggest heroes is Harry Truman. He was viewed as an undistinguished senator who made it to the vice-presidency because other candidates were unacceptable. Yet he has turned out to be what most historians view as one of our best presidents. Whether or not you agree with his decisions, and the continuation of Roosevelt's nuclear policy was one of them, it is clear that he successfully shepherded our country through a difficult period and made it great at a time when the world was in turmoil. And he did it his way – with strength and determination. Notwithstanding predictions of his failure (polls and “Dewey Wins” headlines for example) he led America through a difficult post-war period; notwithstanding “informed” guesses that he'd be indecisive, and criticisms that he didn't have the knowledge and the background for what would certainly be a difficult and torturous responsibility, he demonstrated that this very responsibility brought out the knowledge and the wisdom of a man who represented the highest of our values and the will to achieve them.

I raise this idea now because it is three days before the inauguration of our newly elected president, Donald Trump. By the time this essay is published and you read it he will have been in office for a year and you'll be able to make a preliminary judgment of his performance. Right now what we're hearing dominating the news is a very negative representation of his qualities and ideas. He is viewed by the media as ignorant, thin-skinned, impulsive, bigoted, and egocentric – and that negative assessment is conveyed daily (and strongly) to everybody who happens to read or hear what they have to say. The media's view is that he hasn't the temperament, background, or knowledge to help him through what is likely to be a difficult and torturous responsibility. There are daily protests of his election and statements that his election was “illegitimate.” (It should be noted that those protests come, largely from supporters of Secretary Clinton who, though not trusted by a majority of Americans, was viewed as “the lesser of evils.”) Other countries are accused of interfering in our election process (something America doesn't hesitate to do around the globe when it suits our purposes) making the election indefensible, irrespective of its fulfillment of constitutional requirements.

Donald Trump will be a minority president. While he received a majority of electoral votes, the same was not true of the popular vote and, as periodically is the case, there will be a call for the revision of the Constitution and an amendment that makes the determination of the president a popular decision rather than reflecting the choice of those who represent the diverse needs of the states that make up our union. Perhaps rethinking of the issue is justified, but it isn't as clear an issue as it is characterized, and it isn't the subject of this essay. Donald Trump is our President and we have to get used to that fact, at least until the next election.

The issue I want to address is the idea that some have already predicted what will happen during his administration. There is no question that some of the reservations that people have about him are valid. At least (to me) at the time of this writing. Consequently there are those who feel that his impulsiveness will lead to war. It is of no consequence that we have been at war every day of the eight years his predecessor was in office. Some are certain that he will divide our country. No mention is made of the fact that we are already more divided than we have been in previous years, for a variety of reasons – some based on the policies of the administration which the new president followed. There is also a fear that the poorer among us will suffer from any economic changes that will occur under President Trump, but no acknowledgment of the fact that it was those people, dissatisfied with the current situation, who elected him. In short, the current opposition (I don't know what it will be like a year from now) seems to be basing its opposition on ideological grounds rather than reality.

I must admit that President Trump wasn't my choice. And I am fearful of what his administration will do, but the reality is that our country has survived predictions of doom as well as prophesies of glory. There are times we've “taken a lickin' but [kept] on tickin'.” Only time will tell. Our guesses are of no consequence. All we can do is hope for the best.

January 17, 2017