The Future Of Medicine

Everything nowadays is moving at an unprecedented rate. That includes medicine and other fields of science. Among the greatest accomplishments of recent years has been the decryption of the human genome. And in the years before that was the development of computers from large and (relatively) slow machines to the “super” computers we have today. And they're getting better. Gordon Moore was too conservative in his estimate. Human ingenuity is a powerful engine. And Watson will probably find a way to improve on what we can already do.

I suspect that at some time in the not-too-distant future, if it is not the case already, human DNA research and computer science will be linked to carry out more of the research into disease and its treatment than is already the case. Although I admit to ignorance of current exploitation of these tools, there are some avenues I'd like to propose questions for these efforts. Some may already have been answered, but I suspect there is room for additional inquiry.

Specifically, having identified the various genes that make us human, do we know what chemical each one, or each combination, produces, or what process it controls? Do we know the composition of all of our microscopic structures, tissues, and organs in respect to those chemicals and processes? Do we know how the various diseases affect our internal environments? And do we know the effects of common (or uncommon) combinations of diseases?   

And to what degree can we digitize proposed pharmaceuticals and determine how they would act in the environments of our bodies, and how they would interact with the disease processes that afflict us and the bacterial and other invaders attacking us? Can we determine the unanticipated side-effect that are likely to occur when those pharmaceuticals come in contact with our “components.” (I raise this question because I suffer from side-effects of some of the medicines being introduced into my system. Of course, these discomforts are well worth enduring on the assumption that the medications can produce the effects for which they are being given, but I'd wonder if a computer-generated variant of the pharmaceuticals can be suggested that would produce the benefits that are required, but would lessen the side-effects, the physical costs.)

Speaking of costs, it's probable that doing much of the study in a computer rather than a laboratory and, ultimately, a long-term study with a test group, will shorten the process and make it cheaper. And, perhaps, it will lessen the need for test animals, a result that will bring elation on the part of many animal lovers. It doesn't seem likely that the need for animal and human studies will be eliminated – at least not in the near future – but the magnitude of such studies can be reduced, and they can certainly be entered with more knowledge. And if the cost of pharmaceutical development can be reduced, so can the cost of the products developed. And the cost of medical care in general, which will make better health for poorer nations as well as those that are developed.

Another area that might be explored using the same techniques is the effect of drug combinations on the diseases being studied. It seems reasonable to expect that here, too, the required information can be obtained quickly, less expensively, and with a minimum of harm to humans or other animals. Similarly the study of interactions between target drugs and those likely to be in use for the treatment of other associated, or incidental, processes could be explored. It's better to anticipate problems than to react to them. Over-the-counter potions should also be included in such studies, and a “library” of medications would be of value to all investigators. (And some commercial firm will be able to make a good deal or money by creating such a library.)

As I said earlier, I don't know the stage of development of all these ideas – whether they are plausible or if they are already in the works. But a world in which disease can be studied more quickly and with lower cost would be a wonderful result, and techniques to perform the functions I'm discussing, if they don't already exist, and if they are possible, might be worth exploring.